Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail

The book is exceptionally well researched and documented. Its author has a fifty- year experience in global asset management and is the founder and leader of the largest hedge fund in the world. He believes in studying the past in order to understand where we are and to have practical principles with what is coming. His research comprised his personal experiences both qualitative and quantitative, his interactions with pre-eminent experts, reading authoritative books, and immersing in statistics and archives with his competent research team. The crux of the book is to provide an archetype of the forces that affect the big cyclical swings in wealth and power to which I shall come later. At this point, I shall touch on elements which I found important in reading the book. The people who have wealth are the people who own the means of wealth production. In order to maintain or increase their wealth, they work with the people who have the political power in a symbiotic relationship with them, to set and enforce the rules. This dynamic leads to a very small percentage of the population gaining and controlling an exceptionally large percentage of the total wealth and power, and then encountering bad times, which hurt those least wealthy and least powerful the hardest, which lead to conflicts that produce revolutions and/or civil wars. When these conflicts are over, a new world order is erected, and the cycle begins again. Evolution, which is due to human ingenuity, is the upward movement toward improvement and is intimately related to human productivity that is the output per person which is the most important force in generating the world's total wealth, power, and living standards to rise over time. Together evolution and cycles make the upward corkscrew-type movement that we see in everything - wealth, power, technology etc. The archetypical Big Cycle in which strengths and weaknesses are mutually reinforcing comprise: the new order, the rise, the top, the decline which leads again to a new order. The Rise is the prosperous period of building that comes after a new order. It is when the country is fundamentally strong because there are a) relatively low levels of indebtedness, b) relatively small wealth, values, and political gaps between people, c) people working effectively togetherto produce prosperity, d) good education and infrastructure, e) strong and capable leadership, and f) a peaceful world order guided by a dominant world power which leads to the top. The Top is a period characterized by excesses in the form of a) high level of indebtedness, b) large wealth, values, and political gaps, c) declining education and ifrastructure, d) conflicts between different classes of people within countries, and e) struggles between countries as overextended empires are challenged by emerging rivals, which leads to the decline. The Decline is the painful period of fighting and restructuring that leads to great conflicts and great changes of new internal and external orders. It sets the stage for the next new order and a new period of prosperity building. I shall conclude the review by citing the three empires that rose and declined successively during the last 500 years namely the Dutch, the UK, and the US all of which possessed a reserve currency. I shall touch a litle more on the Dutch because they invented capitalism as we know it. The Dutch Empire and the Guilder: The Dutch invented ships that could go around the world to collect riches, capitalism that could finance these and other productive endeavors. The Dutch created the world's first mega-corporation, the Dutch East-India Company. They also created the world's first reserve currency other than gold and silver, the Dutch guilder, supported by innovative banking and currency system put into place via the establishment of the Bank of Amsterdam. The UK and the Pound: The Uk followed a very similar path peaking in the 1800s. The US and the Dollar: Finally the US rose to become the world's superpower over the last 150 years, though particularly so during and after World Wat II when with the Bretton Woods agreement, the dollar was established as a reserve currency. The US is now in relative decline while China is ascending.

THE BEST BOOK ABOUT HISTORY

Ray Dalio is an excellent author and I loved Principles and other books. This book was fascinating but

Extremely interesting book, gives insights into threats to us all

Very informative

Have read a few books on the rise of China and none lay it out as clearly as Ray. He is also incredibly transparent on the future of USA in the way that you wouldn’t expect to hear from an American. Great book on the rise and fall of empires - perhaps the best of Ray’s books so far. Also shows how quickly world moves as Ray talks a lot about Taiwan, which is still a major risk, but so much has happened since with Ukraine, Trump, and China.

Excellent insight. Very thought provoking and realisational book.

"The times ahead will be radically different from those we've experienced in our lifetimes, though similar to many times in history." (p. 0). "(...) there are many people, companies, non-profit organizations, and governments that look rich even while they are in the process of going broke. They look rich because they spend a lot, have plenty of assets, and even have plenty of cash. However, if you look carefully, you will be able to identify those that look rich but are in financial trouble because they have incomes that are below their expenses." (p. 107) "Helping you understand this debt cycle so you are prepared for it, rather than surprised by it, is my main objective in writing this book." (p. 128) Following his principles book that offered more insight in his life, his company and business, Ray Dalio offers a perspective on history and economics. Out of personal interest but also because it's necessary for his business to be successful he studied the last 500 years to identify any trends. He looks at the large empires: Chinese, Dutch, British and USA and analyses their rises to power but also their decline. I like his non-biased approach in the first part of the book and how he tries to steer away from the populism (one of the symptoms described in the book) that emerges around the world. It also helps to understand why something like BREXIT was a poor choice but also why that choice was put on the table in the first place. It also helps explaining how the world reacted following COVID and how some of the powers are growing while others are in the decline. The fact that in the chapter about China Ray feels he needs to apologize for just writing about it is sad and indicative of the times that we're living in. As a European it was great to see how a US capitalist looks at the opposite of the US. I admire that as much of political views is left outside although through the lines, I can read his disapproval of the Trump era and it feels this chapter is much more personal where many sources are private conversations. I would have expected it to be much more critical though and it feels he criticizes the US a little (there is much more to say) and hardly say anything that may offend China. It may have been best to keep the chapter either more factual or leave it out. Recent events are described but the book must have been written just before the Ukraine war which of course opened the eyes of many to how things really are and not what everyone thought it was. I wonder how Ray's analysis would have been with this information? The typology helps support those who need a concise version and those who want to read everything (and links are provided to get even more data). I understand he struggled with how to deliver this and it would have been better to release a 30-page summary for those in a hurry as it is distracting. The book is high quality with enough coloured charts to illustrate the points that Ray is making. It's good but not great - if he had continued the style from the first part in the second and third it would have been amazingly great. Tip: if you're new to Ray Dalio I highly recommend reading Principles: Life and Work (or Principles for Success) first.

Interesting, learned quite a bit. But the repetitions are incredibly annoying- the whole book could have told in less than halve the pages. In addition the book is also a lot about Ray (I do this, I did that), which could be left out. Remarks like: you may want to read previous section again, slowly. Effing patronizing!

For everybody who would like to learn in which circular structure empires and stock markets rise and fail, this book is the best decision to buy. Honestly. The immense focus on detail offers a guideline with which you can easily work to challenge your own investing ideas. No book has shaped my thinking about financial crises and central banks more than this book! This should be standard literature for every student! Part I is the best part one can wish for. It's about how the machine works. Part II concentrates on the history of the past empires - how they rose, what they experienced on the top and which reasons made them fail Part III is a forecast for future development of the biggest key countries.

One of the best books ever written. It details the historical circumstances surrounding the fall of a reserve currency. The conventional view is that once the US Dollar's hegemony ends so too will the world. Yet, the fall of currencies is something that has occurred hundreds of times in the past. If you're interested in this specific question "What comes after the US Dollar? "- you will enjoy this book.

Es una excelente obra porque con un lenguaje fácil y práctico. Ray Dalio transmite su visión sobre cómo funciona la economía y la geopolítica. Esta es la visión de uno de los hombres con más poder real en este momento y obviamente que se sustenta sobre un sólido estudio, análisis e inteligencia que le ha permitido ser uno de los inversores con más éxito del mundo.

Ray Dalio n'est plus a présenter dans le monde de l'Economie. Et ce livre est encore une fois un plaisir à lire. Des recherches approfondies et une analyse (même plusieurs) très poussée permettent de comprendre les différents cycles économiques à travers le temps et donnent les clefs pour comprendre le monde actuel. Beaucoup de graphiques et d'illustrations permettent de visualiser les cycles et les principales crises économiques et financières. Construit en 3 parties bien distinctes, chacune d'elle est expliquée et décortiquée dans un langage clair et compréhensible.